Clive Owen “Closer”
For him: Delving into a complex role in a complex movie, Owen showed America how good he really is;
Against him: This won’t be his last nomination; the Academy may decide to make him wait.
Odds: 2:1
Thomas Haden Church “Sideways”
For him: Revitalized his career with a movie that will assure that he’s never referred to as “that guy from Wings” again.
Against him: Giamatti’s snub doesn’t bode well for the film in the acting categories.
Odds: 3:1
Morgan Freeman “Million Dollar Baby”
For him: He’s a beloved veteran in a film that critics and voters just loved; if Swank and Eastwood win their categories, it could be a Baby sweep.
Against him: There’s just too much competition.
Odds: 5:1
Jamie Foxx “Collateral”
For him: Playing off a villainous Tom Cruise, Foxx proves that Ray is no fluke.
Against him: He’ll split his own vote, and the majority will go to Ray.
Odds: 7:1
Alan Alda “The Aviator”
For him: Cate Blanchett may end up taking Best Supporting Actress for the same movie, and association never hurts.
Against him: It’s an honor just to be nominated.
Odds: 10:1
From:
About me: “'But I don’t want to go among mad people,' Alice remarked. 'Oh, you can’t help that,' said the Cat. 'We’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.' 'How do you know I’m mad?' said Alice. 'You must be,” said the Cat, 'or you wouldn’t have come here.'” -Lewis Carroll