The Aviator
For it: The last time DiCaprio and Scorcese teamed up, Gangs of New York took home Best Picture, and voters may be looking to reward the duo here since they won’t be winning Best Actor or Best Director this year; Hollywood loves movies about Hollywood.
Against it: Could be sucker-punched by Million Dollar Baby.
Odds- 3:2
Million Dollar Baby
For it: Eastwood took home the DGA, a good predictor of Best Picture; Swank is a former Academy darling; since Fahrenheit 9/11 got shut-out, Baby might provide a new outlet for liberal frustration.
Against it: Do you know anyone who saw it? Me neither.
Odds- 3:1
Sideways
For it: Easily has the biggest buzz surrounding it; Hollwood loves its underdogs.
Against it: Small fish, big pond; look for it to take Best Adapted Screenplay instead.
Odds- 5-1
Finding Neverland
For it: Probably the crowd favorite of the bunch; industry darlings Winslet and Depp provide mega-watt starpower; Shakespeare in Love managed to steal the award from the formidable Saving Private Ryan.
Against it: Only Best Picture nominated film to not get a Best Director nod as well; Neverland never got near the amount of buzz as Shakespeare.
Odds: 10:1
Ray
For it: One of the rare biopics that also makes really good cinema; the death of Ray Charles makes the film all the more bittersweet; Charles posthumously swept the Grammys.
Against it: Ray is all about Jamie Foxx, and that’s where voters will reward the film.
Odds- 15:1
From:
About me: “'But I don’t want to go among mad people,' Alice remarked. 'Oh, you can’t help that,' said the Cat. 'We’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.' 'How do you know I’m mad?' said Alice. 'You must be,” said the Cat, 'or you wouldn’t have come here.'” -Lewis Carroll