I have a confession to make: I have not seen a single Best Picture nominee this year. In fact, other than Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, I haven’t seen a single movie nominated in any major category. I won’t let this preclude me from commentating on them though. If Hollywood has taught me nothing else, you don’t have to know what you’re talking about to give your opinion; you just have to have a platform.

Guide to the Oscars, 2004 edition

Best Picture

The Aviator- “The Blockbuster”
a.k.a. “The Frontrunner.” This movie has grossed more than the other four nominees combined and is likely the only one Middle America has actually seen. Nine times out of ten, it will be the winner.
see: Titanic, Saving Private Ryan, Gladiator, The Lord of the Rings trilogy

Finding Neverland- “The Feel-Good Tearjerker”
There has to be one film in the mix that made you cry. It can be sweetly sentimental or tragically depressing, but tissues were definitely involved.

See: Shakespeare in Love, Chocolat, Moulin Rouge, Seabiscuit

Million Dollar Baby- “The Issue Film”
The film where Hollywood takes a hot-button issue and injects its two cents. Ten times out of ten, the liberal side of the argument will win. All characters on the opposing side will be portrayed as evil, rich, white, racist, homophobic Republicans. This is so studio heads can give soundbites about how “important” movies are to society.

See: The Cider House Rules, The Insider, Traffic, The Hours

Sideways- “The Indy Underdog”
Inevitably there will be one film in the mix that no one saw coming. Before its surprise success, movie critics and producers had completely written it off. Typically the movie has no bankable stars and is also nominated for Best Screenplay. Because it is on the outside of Hollywood politics, it has no chance of actually taking the Oscar.

See: The Full Monty, Good Will Hunting, Lost in Translation

Ray- “The Star Vehicle”
Rarer but still prevalent is the film that would never have been nominated but for its world-famous director and/or star. This is not to say that the film is bad, but it cannot stand on its own without its star performance. Remove the star from the equation and the whole thing falls apart.

See: Erin Brokovich, A Beautiful Mind, Gangs of New York